Who is winning Pennsylvania? Trump or Harris?

Pennsylvania is at the heart of the 2024 presidential race, with new polls showing a deadlock between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Both campaigns are pushing hard to sway undecided voters in this battleground state. 

November 4, 2024

Digital Worldwide News

In the latest round of polls, Pennsylvania remains in a dead heat between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Two new polls, released Sunday, each show the candidates locked at 48% among likely voters, underscoring Pennsylvania's potential to be the deciding state in the 2024 presidential race. With less than a year to Election Day, both campaigns are ramping up efforts to sway undecided voters in this pivotal state.

Key Numbers and Trends

The two recent polls, conducted by the New York Times/Siena and Morning Consult, show a razor-thin margin in the state, with Harris’s lead from earlier October slipping to an even split with Trump. Margins of error, hovering around 3-3.5 points, underscore just how tight this race is, signaling that Pennsylvania could be a toss-up on Election Day.

Pennsylvania has a long history of swinging elections; in 2020, it was the state that put President Biden over the threshold needed to win the Electoral College. For Democrats, the state is part of the “Blue Wall” that has traditionally included Wisconsin and Michigan, but Trump’s 2016 victory disrupted this pattern, leaving Pennsylvania up for grabs.

Current Polling Averages and Trends

Although polls are split, the average shows Trump with a slight edge, leading by just 0.2 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight's polling average for Pennsylvania. Harris, however, holds a narrow lead in three other recent polls, including a Marist poll, where she edges out Trump 50%-48% when undecided voters leaning toward a candidate are included.

For both campaigns, these mixed results emphasize Pennsylvania's importance. Statistician Nate Silver's forecasting model underscores Pennsylvania's pivotal role, noting that whichever candidate wins the state could have over an 85% chance of winning the White House.

Voter Demographics and Key Issues

Pennsylvania’s voter demographics could heavily influence the outcome. The state has a high percentage of white, working-class voters, a group Trump performed well with in 2016 and 2020. However, Harris has made inroads with this demographic, narrowing Trump’s advantage from 12 points nationally in 2020 to only three points, according to recent polling data.

Economic concerns dominate the minds of Pennsylvania voters, with 82% stating that the economy is a critical factor in their decision. Inflation, alongside the broader state of democracy, ranks high on the list of voter priorities, highlighting a common ground in Pennsylvania’s divided electorate.

Historical Significance and Electoral Trends

No Democrat has won the presidency without Pennsylvania since 1948, making it a crucial stop for the Harris campaign. Pennsylvania has also aligned with Wisconsin and Michigan in previous elections, giving Democrats a strong chance if they maintain support across these states.

Trump’s win in Pennsylvania in 2016 marked the first time a Republican candidate had taken the state since the 1980s, which shifted the national conversation around the “Blue Wall” and redefined battleground state strategies. Biden’s narrow win in 2020 restored Democratic control, but the state remains deeply competitive.

Energy Policy and Key Criticisms

Energy policy is a contentious issue, particularly around fracking. Pennsylvania ranks as the nation’s second-largest producer of natural gas, making energy a top concern for voters. Trump has repeatedly criticized Harris for her past statements supporting a fracking ban. Harris has since clarified her stance, pointing to Biden’s position and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which expanded natural gas leases, as evidence of her support for responsible energy policies.

The fracking debate will likely play a significant role in Trump’s campaign messaging in Pennsylvania, aiming to sway voters concerned about the state’s economy and energy independence.

A Divided State Legislature and Local Politics

Pennsylvania’s divided government could add another layer of complexity to the election. Governor Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, holds significant popularity, and the state’s House is also controlled by Democrats. However, the Republican-held Senate underscores Pennsylvania’s deeply polarized political landscape.

Local politicians, who influence voters in key districts, could play a major role as both campaigns seek endorsements and support from prominent figures within the state. This split control of state government adds weight to local issues, which could ultimately influence voters’ decisions.

Turnout and Motivation Among Voters

Turnout will be crucial for both campaigns. Polls indicate that voter motivation is high among likely voters. Trump holds a slight edge among all registered voters, but Harris leads among those who have consistently voted in past elections. Monmouth’s poll data shows a tie among extremely motivated voters, suggesting that mobilization efforts will be critical for both sides.

With a significant portion of voters undecided or open to changing their minds, both campaigns are prioritizing strategies to capture this group, particularly through targeted messaging on economic and social issues.

Pennsylvania's Importance to Trump’s Campaign

Winning Pennsylvania is particularly important for Trump. While he has shown strength in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, he would still need to secure one of the Blue Wall states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin—to win the presidency.

With Pennsylvania’s significance for the electoral math, the Trump campaign is expected to invest heavily in resources, outreach, and advertising within the state, focusing on themes that resonate with Pennsylvania’s unique voter base.

High Stakes and Future Implications

The tied polling data in Pennsylvania underscores the razor-thin nature of the 2024 election. Both campaigns recognize the state's pivotal role, and their respective ground games are ramping up, from voter registration drives to targeted social media campaigns.

As Election Day nears, Pennsylvania’s voters are in the spotlight, as the state remains the most likely to determine the next occupant of the White House. With only a narrow margin separating the candidates, Pennsylvania may once again be the state to watch.