Global Warming

Arctic Could Be ‘Ice-Free’ Within A Decade, Experts Warn

6th-March-2024

A recent study suggests the Arctic might lose its summer ice sooner, possibly within the next few years—10 years earlier than expected. 


Seasonal sea ice, forming in winter and melting in summer, declines due to global warming caused by humans.

 

The first "ice-free" Arctic summer, with less than 386,000 square miles of sea ice, could happen as early as the 2020s or 2030s. 


The lead author is Alexandra Jahn from the University of Colorado. He blames greenhouse gas emissions.

 

Sea ice, freezing in winter and melting in summer, declines, especially in September, reaching its lowest coverage. 


Earlier predictions anticipated virtual ice-free conditions by the end of the century with continued high emissions.

 

Declining sea ice threatens Arctic communities, wildlife like polar bears and walruses, influencing the planet's temperature by affecting circulation. 


Polar bears, reliant on sea ice for hunting, face increased threats with prolonged ice-free conditions.

 

The impact extends to people in the Arctic, affecting travel over the frozen Arctic Ocean and contributing to coastal erosion. Open water areas result in higher wave heights, risking seaside villages.

 

The consequences aren't limited to the Arctic. Studies indicate the loss of summer sea ice could influence U.S. weather and increase wildfire risks in the western U.S. 


An ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer would make the region more accessible for shipping, mining, and tourism.

 

Walt Meier, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, acknowledges the study's sound methodology but highlights uncertainties. 


While an ice-free Arctic is possible this decade, he suggests the mid- to late 2030s as a more plausible timeframe.

 

The timetable for sea ice loss depends on emissions. If current emissions persist, the Arctic might become ice-free only in late summer and early fall from August to October. 


The highest emissions scenario could result in up to nine months of ice-free conditions by the century's end.

 

Jahn emphasizes the need to keep emissions low to avoid prolonged ice-free conditions. Even if ice-free conditions are inevitable, efforts should be made to minimize their duration.


The study is published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.


A 2022 study led by Mika Rantanen reveals the Arctic warms four times faster than the globe since 1979. This is higher than previously thought. 


Observational data shows the Arctic warms almost four times faster than the global average in the last 43 years.

 

The Arctic's warming rate is 3.8 times faster than the global average during 1979–2021. 


Parts of the Arctic Ocean warm at least four times faster than the global average. Near Novaya Zemlya, warming is up to seven times faster than globally.

 

Comparing the observed warming with climate models shows an unusual ratio. This suggests models might underestimate Arctic warming or it's an uncommon event. 


Earlier periods have uncertainties, making comparisons challenging.

 

Arctic warming varies with definitions and regions. But it's consistently over three times the global average. 


This rapid warming has implications for climate models and understanding climate change. Further research is crucial to understand and address Arctic warming.