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Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi Dies at 63 in Helicopter Crash Amidst Political and Economic Turmoil

Iranians are struggling with a 40% inflation rate and a -2.5 % GDP growth. With annual military spending soaring by 10%, the nation grapples with political uncertainty following the loss of a prominent conservative figure.

20th May 2024

 

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi has tragically died after a helicopter crash in East Azerbaijan province. The helicopter carrying him and other officials went down in a mountainous, forested area during poor weather. 


Raisi was 63 years old and had been in office for nearly three years. He was a prominent conservative figure in Iranian politics and was expected to run for re-election next year.

 

Raisi's Political Background


Ebrahim Raisi was born in Mashhad, northeastern Iran, a significant religious hub for Shia Muslims. He studied at the seminary in Qom under prominent scholars, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 


Raisi wore a black turban, signifying his status as a sayyid, a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, which holds particular significance among Twelver Shia Muslims. 


He gained extensive experience as a prosecutor in multiple jurisdictions before coming to Tehran in 1985. Human rights organizations have noted that he was part of a committee of judges overseeing political prisoner executions in Tehran.

 

Raisi's Rise to Prominence


Raisi was a longtime member of the Assembly of Experts, responsible for selecting a replacement for the supreme leader upon his death.


In 2014, he became attorney general and later led the Astan Quds Razavi, a massive charitable trust with billions of dollars in assets. Raisi first ran for president in 2017 but was unsuccessful against former President Hassan Rouhani. 


He became head of the judiciary in 2019 and positioned himself as a defender of justice and a fighter against corruption, making numerous provincial visits to garner support.

 

Presidency and Policies


Raisi was elected president in 2021 amid low voter turnout and widespread disqualification of reformist and moderate candidates. 


He was a firm advocate for "resistance" and "resilience," strategic policies adopted by Khamenei in response to harsh sanctions imposed after the 2015 nuclear deal fell through. Raisi's rhetoric was particularly harsh against Israel and the United States. 


He made several speeches condemning Israeli actions in Gaza and promised revenge for attacks on Iranian interests in Syria. Raisi supported Iran’s military responses, claiming success despite many attacks being intercepted by Israeli allies.

 

Economic and Military Stance


Raisi's administration focused on strengthening Iran’s economic and military capabilities. He supported the "axis of resistance" involving political and armed groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. 


Raisi was a staunch ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, backing his government’s war against opposition forces. This conflict has resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths.

 

Details of the Helicopter Crash


The helicopter crash that claimed Raisi's life occurred in East Azerbaijan province. The area is known for its challenging terrain and adverse weather conditions, which likely contributed to the accident. 


Initial reports suggest that the helicopter encountered severe weather, leading to the crash. Search and rescue teams were dispatched immediately, but unfortunately, they confirmed Raisi's death upon arrival.

 

Impact on Iranian Politics


Raisi's death leaves a significant void in Iranian politics. As a leading conservative figure, his absence will impact the political landscape, especially with the upcoming presidential election. 


His close ties to the IRGC and strong stance on resistance policies have been crucial in shaping Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. 


The Assembly of Experts will play a critical role in determining the future leadership, especially concerning the succession of Ayatollah Khamenei.

 

Economic Calculations and Impact


The economic implications of Raisi's policies were significant. Under his leadership, Iran faced some of the harshest sanctions, impacting its economy. 


However, Raisi championed resilience, focusing on internal economic strengthening. For instance, Iran's GDP growth rate was -6% in 2020 due to sanctions but showed signs of recovery with a 3% growth rate in 2022.


Inflation rates, which were around 40% during his presidency, impacted everyday life. Raisi's economic strategies aimed to mitigate these effects, though challenges remained.

 

Military Calculations and Impact


Raisi's support for military actions had both direct and indirect economic impacts. Military spending increased by approximately 10% annually during his presidency, diverting resources from other sectors. 


The IRGC’s budget, for example, saw a rise from $5 billion in 2020 to $5.5 billion in 2023. 


These expenditures were justified by the government as necessary for national security and regional influence. However, they also strained the economy, leading to debates on the sustainability of such spending levels.

 

Statistical Overview of Raisi's Tenure


Future Projections


The future of Iran’s political and economic landscape is uncertain. The upcoming presidential election will be pivotal. 


The Assembly of Experts’ decisions will shape Iran’s direction, especially in continuing or modifying Raisi's policies. 


Economists predict that Iran’s economy might shrink by 2% annually if sanctions persist. Conversely, a diplomatic breakthrough could lead to a 5% growth rate, stabilizing the inflation rate at around 20%.


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