They All Thought Kenya Could Handle the Heat... Until the Climate Changed the Rules

18th September 2024

In recent months, over 14 million Kenyans endured at least 60 consecutive days of extreme temperatures, a direct consequence of accelerating climate change. The findings, released by Climate Central, a non-profit science organization, underscore the growing severity of climate-induced heat and its implications for public health and infrastructure in the country.

The report indicates that these extreme temperatures were largely driven by the burning of fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and gas. This alarming rise in temperatures was felt most acutely between June and August 2023, when global heat levels reached unprecedented highs, causing widespread concern among scientists and policymakers alike.

Nairobi and Mombasa Hit Hard by Climate-Driven Heat

Among the cities most affected by the prolonged heat were Nairobi and Mombasa, two of Kenya's largest urban centers. Nairobi experienced 83 days of extreme heat, while Mombasa faced 59 days with similarly dangerous temperatures. Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index (CSI), a tool used to measure the influence of climate change on local weather conditions, revealed that these high temperatures were at least five times more likely due to climate change.

In a statement accompanying the report, Andrew Pershing, Climate Central's vice president for science, noted the gravity of the situation: "High temperatures influenced by climate change jeopardized the health of millions in Kenya this summer. No region, country, or city is immune to the risks posed by burning fossil fuels."

The Impact of ‘Risky Heat’ on Public Health

The report highlights the significant health risks posed by what scientists refer to as "risky heat" days. These are days when temperatures exceed the 90th percentile of historical records, surpassing the safe threshold for human health. For many Kenyans, such conditions elevate the risk of heat-related illnesses, including dehydration, heat stroke, and cardiovascular issues.

As the world continues to warm, these “risky heat” days are becoming more frequent. Experts caution that the combination of high temperatures and limited access to adequate healthcare in vulnerable regions could lead to a rise in mortality rates. Nairobi and Mombasa, with their large populations and growing infrastructure needs, are particularly susceptible to the long-term health implications of prolonged heat exposure.

Global Heatwave: A Shared Burden of Climate Change

Kenya’s experience with extreme heat is not an isolated incident. Globally, more than 2 billion people were exposed to dangerous levels of heat during the same period, according to the Climate Central report. In fact, one in four people across the globe faced climate-driven temperatures every day from June to August.

Northern Hemisphere cities were especially hard hit, with 180 urban areas experiencing at least one extreme heatwave this summer. These heatwaves, made 21 times more likely due to carbon pollution, highlight the global nature of the crisis. While developed nations struggle with infrastructure stress and increased energy demands, developing nations like Kenya face more direct threats to public health and livelihoods.

Heat-Related Deaths: A Global Concern

The deadly consequences of rising temperatures have been well-documented. In 2023 alone, over 2,300 people died from heat-related causes in the United States, a record high. Yet, in many parts of the world, particularly in Africa, the full scale of heat-related mortality is underreported due to limited access to healthcare and inadequate data collection systems.

The report emphasizes that extreme heat is now one of the deadliest weather-related hazards globally. The lack of comprehensive reporting on heat-related deaths, especially in low-income regions, has made it difficult for authorities to assess the true scale of the problem and implement effective solutions.

Kenya's Urban Heat Challenge: The Burden of City Living

Urban areas such as Nairobi and Mombasa face unique challenges in coping with extreme heat. The concentration of buildings, roads, and industrial activity in cities often amplifies the effects of heat, creating what is known as the "urban heat island" effect. This phenomenon causes cities to retain more heat than rural areas, putting additional strain on local infrastructure and services.

In Nairobi’s informal settlements, where many live in poorly ventilated housing with limited access to electricity, the heat has exacerbated already difficult living conditions. The health risks posed by prolonged heat in these communities cannot be overstated. In such densely populated areas, the lack of proper ventilation and cooling systems has left residents particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme temperatures.