DWN AFRICA

Nigeria economy : numbers don't match the reality on the ground

28th August 2024

Nigeria's GDP grew by 3.19% in the second quarter of 2024. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu sees this as a win, but economists disagree. They say the numbers don't match the reality on the ground. So, is this growth just a mirage?

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the services sector helped boost Nigeria's economy. The growth rate was higher than the 2.51% recorded in the same quarter last year. But does this economic jargon mean anything to the average Nigerian?

GDP Growth vs. Real Life: A Big Gap

The numbers may look good on paper, but many Nigerians feel left out. If the economy is growing, why are people still struggling? The industry and services sectors contributed more to the GDP than last year, with services alone making up 58.76% of the total GDP. But has this growth trickled down to the streets?

The Inflated Reality of Nigeria's Economy

Despite this reported growth, economists are scratching their heads. Why hasn't this economic boost improved living conditions? Even Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the Director General of the World Trade Organization, recently said that Nigeria's economy has been in decline since 2014. Sure, there's steady GDP growth, but what's the use if inflation is still high?

In July, NBS data showed inflation slowed to 33.40%, down from 34.19% in June. But does anyone really feel this "improvement"? Prices of goods and services remain sky-high. It seems Tinubu's government policies haven't done much to ease the pain. So, what gives?

Experts Weigh In: A Broken Economy?

Professor Segun Ajibola, an economist, says Nigeria's macroeconomic numbers aren't telling the full story. "GDP growth should touch everyday lives," he argues. "It needs to reach the micro level, like household income and consumption. Otherwise, it's just numbers."

Ajibola believes a holistic approach is needed. The growth should be spread across agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and services. Only then will it translate into real development. But is anyone listening?

The Hidden Truth Behind Nigeria's Economic Numbers

Ajibola isn't alone. Gbolade Idakolo, CEO of SD & D Capital Management, says the GDP growth figures don't match reality. "The economy is shrinking," he claims. "We need drastic measures to bounce back." His words are stark, but he has a point. If businesses are closing and the naira is sliding against the dollar, where's the growth?

He points out that many companies are either shutting down or downsizing. Some are even relocating. The Central Bank keeps hiking interest rates, but it doesn’t seem to help. Idakolo suggests policies to boost small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and big businesses. But will the government take action?

The Bigger Picture: More Than Just Numbers

The debate over Nigeria's economy is far from over. Economists argue that numbers alone don’t tell the whole story. They want the government to focus on real, tangible improvements. "It's not just about GDP," Ajibola says. "It's about people’s lives."

What can be done to close this gap? Experts suggest several steps. First, better policies are needed to support businesses, especially SMEs. Second, there must be a focus on all sectors, from agriculture to services. And finally, the government needs to pay attention to the everyday experiences of Nigerians.

If these steps are taken, there might be hope for real change. But if not, Nigeria could be stuck in a cycle of growth without development.

President Tinubu now faces a big challenge. Can he turn these numbers into real improvements? Will he listen to the experts and take action? Or will Nigeria continue down this uncertain path?

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