Ethiopia vs. Egypt: How the Nile Dam Dispute Escalated

12th September 2024

The long-standing feud between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has taken a sharp turn. Ethiopia recently accused Egypt of pursuing an "aggressive approach" after the latter brought the issue to the United Nations Security Council. This dam dispute, which started over a decade ago, has become a geopolitical tug of war over water, development, and survival.

The Start of the Tension

It all began in 2011 when Ethiopia decided to build the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, the river responsible for supplying 85% of the Nile's water. Ethiopia saw it as a huge opportunity to develop its economy and provide electricity to millions of households. The dam was going to be Africa’s largest hydroelectric power plant, a source of national pride and development.

Egypt, however, saw a much different picture. Since Egypt relies almost entirely on the Nile for its water supply, it feared the dam would reduce the river's flow, especially during drought years. For Egypt, this wasn’t just a development project; it was an existential threat. To Egypt, the Nile is not just a river but the lifeblood of the nation.

Colonial-Era Treaties in the Mix

Egypt often refers to colonial-era treaties from the late 19th and early 20th centuries that grant it veto power over upstream water projects. This legal backing, according to Egypt, gives it rights to the Nile that cannot be taken away by another country. Ethiopia, on the other hand, has outright rejected these treaties, calling them outdated and unfair.

Addis Ababa argues that the treaties were signed during a time when Ethiopia had no say in the matter, and they refuse to let a colonial document determine their modern development needs. Ethiopia’s stance is firm: the dam is essential for its growth, and it won’t be stopped by outdated agreements.

Letters to the UN and Accusations Fly

Just last week, Egypt sent a letter to the UN Security Council, accusing Ethiopia of violating international law by continuing to fill the GERD without the consent of downstream nations like Egypt and Sudan. This move by Egypt was seen as a last-ditch effort to halt Ethiopia’s actions and draw global attention to the issue.

In response, Ethiopia fired back. It accused Egypt of making "unfounded allegations" and claimed that Cairo’s only interest was maintaining a “self-claimed monopoly” over the Nile. Ethiopia also pointed out that it had been in talks for years, and all attempts to reach an agreement had failed, not because of Ethiopia, but because of Egypt's stubbornness.

Power, Water, and the People

While diplomats and leaders argue, the people on the ground have their concerns. For Ethiopia, the dam means progress. It promises to generate much-needed electricity, bringing power to millions of people who still live without it. This dam symbolizes a brighter future for Ethiopia, where they won’t have to depend on expensive energy imports.

On the other side, the people of Egypt view the dam as a threat to their way of life. Egypt’s population depends on the Nile for drinking water, farming, and even industry. The fear is that the dam will lead to water shortages, turning fertile land into desert.

The Sudan Factor

Sudan, through which the Nile also flows, is stuck in the middle of this dispute. While Sudan has raised concerns about its own water supply, it has also expressed interest in the electricity the GERD could generate. This has made Sudan’s position less clear. While it has sided with Egypt in talks, it is not entirely opposed to the dam. Sudan is walking a tightrope, trying to balance its needs for water and power.

Failed Diplomacy

Despite numerous rounds of talks, no binding agreement has been reached. The most recent efforts, which ended in December last year, saw both Egypt and Ethiopia accuse the other of being inflexible. Egypt insists on having guarantees over water flow, while Ethiopia is reluctant to give up control over its dam.

This diplomatic stalemate has left the region in limbo, with no clear solution in sight. Ethiopia continues to fill the dam's reservoir, with the fifth phase completed just last week. Egypt watches in fear, as each phase brings the dam closer to full operation.

A New Twist: Somalia’s Involvement

Tensions have taken an unexpected turn in recent weeks, as Egypt has strengthened military ties with Ethiopia's neighbor, Somalia. This military alliance has raised eyebrows in Addis Ababa, especially since relations between Ethiopia and Somalia have soured recently. Ethiopia had signed a controversial deal with the self-declared Republic of Somaliland in January, giving Ethiopia access to the sea.

Somalia saw this agreement as an act of aggression, as it considers Somaliland part of its territory. Now, with Egypt stepping in and forming an alliance with Somalia, Ethiopia feels cornered. The geopolitical stakes have been raised, with military alliances forming and diplomatic channels failing.

The Bigger Picture

This dam dispute is about more than just water. It’s about power, politics, and the future of the region. For Ethiopia, the GERD represents its ambitions to become a regional powerhouse, both economically and politically. For Egypt, it’s about survival and maintaining its historical dominance over the Nile.

As Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed recently warned, anyone attempting to attack Ethiopia “from afar and nearby” would be repelled. Though he didn’t name names, it’s clear that tensions are escalating, and Ethiopia is not backing down.

What’s Next?

The Nile dam row seems far from over. As Egypt and Ethiopia continue to trade accusations, the possibility of a peaceful resolution grows more distant. Diplomatic efforts have failed, military alliances are being formed, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.