The high bar for impeachment
The stakes are high for Gachagua. If two-thirds of the Senate vote in favor of impeachment, he will become the first deputy president in Kenya’s history to be removed from office through this process, introduced by the 2010 constitution.
Political observers warn that Gachagua's removal could trigger significant political instability. The public perception of the impeachment process as a politically motivated attack could hurt President Ruto, whose relationship with Gachagua has reportedly soured in recent months.
“Should Gachagua be ousted, it could backfire on Ruto," Kanyinga warned. "Many will start asking whether the president himself is above scrutiny.”
Public sentiment and political ramifications
The Kenyan public is watching the impeachment closely, with opinions sharply divided. Some view the proceedings as necessary to hold public officials accountable, while others believe it is part of a broader political game aimed at sidelining Ruto’s former ally.
President Ruto has remained notably silent throughout the impeachment process, but the political stakes are high for his administration. Should Gachagua be removed, it may further deepen existing fissures within the ruling coalition, potentially destabilizing Ruto’s government at a time when the country is grappling with economic challenges and public discontent.
"The president risks a backlash if Gachagua’s ousting is seen as politically driven. Many Kenyans are already unhappy with the government’s handling of recent crises," said a political analyst.
An uncertain future for Gachagua
For Gachagua, the outcome of the Senate vote is uncertain, but the path forward is fraught with challenges. His hospitalization adds a layer of complexity to the proceedings, raising questions about the fairness of the impeachment process and whether he will have the opportunity to defend himself adequately.
Gachagua has repeatedly described the impeachment as a “political lynching,” framing himself as a victim of internal power struggles. Whether he will have a chance to recover and mount a robust defense remains to be seen.
As the Senate continues with the hearings and prepares for a vote, the political future of Kenya’s deputy president hangs in the balance. Should the vote go against him, it could mark a dramatic turning point in Kenyan politics, with long-lasting implications for both Gachagua and President Ruto’s administration.