Can Kamala Harris Beat Donald Trump? Latest Poll Updates Show a Close Race
Some polls show Harris with a slight edge, while others have Trump holding onto slim leads in key battleground states.
12th October 2024
Some polls show Harris with a slight edge, while others have Trump holding onto slim leads in key battleground states.
12th October 2024
As it stands, the 2024 election is a dead heat. According to most polls, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump can claim a clear lead. The margins are razor-thin, and the battle for swing states is particularly fierce.
In a fight this close, every voter, every state, and every demographic matters. Polls from the New York Times and FiveThirtyEight show Harris with a slight national lead — but just barely. On average, Harris is ahead by about 2.5 points, which is hardly enough to make anyone comfortable.
In short? This race is anyone’s game.
Let’s talk about swing states. These are the battlegrounds where the election will likely be decided, and the latest polls are revealing.
Trump currently leads in four out of seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. But Harris isn’t far behind, and in some states, it’s truly neck and neck. For example, in Michigan and Wisconsin, the candidates are essentially tied, with Harris having the edge in just one swing state at the moment.
The swing states matter more than ever. These are the states that will tip the balance in November.
The Trump-Harris gender divide is stark, particularly in states like Georgia. There, Harris has a 12-point lead among women, while Trump holds a 14-point lead among men. In other swing states, the gender gap isn’t as pronounced, but it’s still there. Harris continues to attract more women voters, while Trump does better among men.
And then there’s the generational split. For years, older voters have been Trump’s stronghold, but that’s changing. Recent polls suggest that Harris is making inroads with Gen X and Baby Boomers, narrowing Trump’s once-commanding lead among these groups. In fact, the latest New York Times poll shows the two candidates virtually tied among both generations.
For Harris, the support of young voters is crucial, as is her appeal to non-white demographics. Trump, meanwhile, continues to rely heavily on white, non-college-educated voters.
One of the biggest surprises from recent polling is the number of Republicans who might cross party lines and vote for Harris. According to the New York Times/Siena College poll, nearly 1 in 10 Republicans say they’re planning to vote for Harris. That’s 9 percent of the Republican vote that Trump could lose — a significant number in such a close race.
In September, that figure was only 5 percent, showing a shift in loyalty as Election Day approaches.
At the same time, independent voters remain deeply divided. It’s a 50/50 split, with neither candidate securing a commanding lead among this crucial bloc of voters.
Florida is always a hot topic during election season, and this year is no different. Recent polls have been all over the place, leaving many to wonder where the Sunshine State will fall come November.
At one point, Harris appeared to be gaining ground on Trump in Florida. A poll from the historically Republican RMG Research had Trump leading with just 50 percent of the vote, while Harris followed closely with 48 percent.
But new data from the New York Times paints a different picture. Trump is now ahead by a whopping 13 points in Florida, with 55 percent of the vote to Harris’s 41 percent. This significant lead suggests that Florida, Trump’s home state and a Republican stronghold, may not be as competitive as initially thought.
According to New York Times analyst Nate Cohn, Trump is performing especially well in states like Florida, where Republicans excelled in the 2022 midterms. “This poll is not the usual outlier,” Cohn notes, adding that Florida could be more solidly Republican in 2024, thanks in part to the political upheaval caused by the pandemic.
With only weeks left until the election, what happens next? It’s anyone’s guess. The polls are too unstable to predict a clear winner, and the fight for the White House could go down to the wire.
Trump may have the advantage in some key swing states, but Harris is holding her own, especially with women and younger voters. Both candidates have strong bases, but with such thin margins, it’s impossible to say who will emerge victorious on Election Day.
What’s certain is that this will be one of the most hotly contested elections in recent memory. Both Trump and Harris are vying for every vote, and every polling update brings new twists and turns.
Despite the uncertainties, one thing remains clear: the gender divide in this election is as strong as ever. Trump continues to dominate among male voters, while Harris leads with women.
In states like Georgia, the divide is particularly pronounced, with Harris leading by double digits among women and Trump holding a strong lead among men. This dynamic could be a deciding factor in key battleground states, especially if the margins remain tight.
As the election draws closer, both candidates will be looking to shore up support within their respective bases while also courting swing voters and independents
As we head into the final stretch of the 2024 campaign, the polls are offering a mixed bag of results. Harris has a slim lead in national polls, but Trump is holding steady in several crucial swing states.
The latest average of national polls from FiveThirtyEight puts Harris ahead by 2.5 points, but with margins this thin, nothing is guaranteed.
As we’ve seen in previous elections, the national popular vote doesn’t always determine the outcome. It’s the Electoral College that ultimately decides who will sit in the Oval Office. And in the key swing states that matter most, the race is still up for grabs.