With just weeks to go until Election Day, both campaigns are pulling out all the stops. Trump is doubling down on his rallies, where he energizes his base and emphasizes the economic issues that have defined his platform.
12th October 2024
Donald Trump is polling better now than in his previous races against Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. While Kamala Harris currently holds a slim lead in most national polls, political analysts are quick to note that Trump consistently outperforms expectations when it comes to actual votes on Election Day. The question on everyone’s mind: Can Trump pull off another Electoral College win in 2024?
The numbers suggest that while Harris may have the edge on paper, Trump’s position in the polls is far from the long shots of his previous campaigns, making this election a nail-biting contest to the finish line.
In both 2016 and 2020, Trump trailed his opponents in national polling right up until Election Day. Yet, in 2016, he shocked the world by clinching a win over Hillary Clinton through the Electoral College, despite losing the popular vote by more than 2 percentage points. Similarly, in 2020, Trump lost the popular vote to Joe Biden by a margin of 4.4%, but performed better in the electoral battleground states than many polls predicted.
Now, in 2024, the story seems familiar. Trump is once again behind, but by narrower margins. A recent Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of national polls shows Kamala Harris leading Trump by only 1.8%. For comparison, at this same point in 2020, Biden held a much larger lead of 10.3% over Trump.
While polls are inherently uncertain—especially with the increasing complexities of voter demographics, turnout, and new issues at stake—the current data hints that Trump might be in a better position now than in his previous races. But will that be enough for him to reclaim the White House?
The “Hidden Trump Vote” Phenomenon
One of the key factors Trump’s campaign is banking on is the infamous "hidden Trump vote." This term refers to voters who support Trump but are reluctant to disclose their preference to pollsters. Some of these voters may avoid engaging in traditional polling methods, like phone calls, for fear of social stigma or privacy concerns.
During his recent rally in Reading, Pennsylvania, Trump emphasized this point, claiming a secret poll showed him ahead by 3 percentage points in the battleground state, adding, “which probably means 10.” Trump’s team believes this hidden base could help him overtake Harris in the key swing states that decide the election.
However, the existence and size of this hidden vote is hotly debated. Many pollsters have adjusted their methodologies since 2016 to account for potential "shy" Trump voters, including those harder to reach through traditional polling methods. Yet, with new issues such as inflation, immigration, and abortion laws driving voter behavior, it’s unclear how significant this hidden vote will be in 2024.
Battleground States: Where the Election Will Be Decided
As in previous elections, national polls offer only part of the picture. The real story lies in the swing states—those crucial battlegrounds where small margins can determine the outcome of the entire race.
This year, the seven key battleground states are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. Polls in these states show a tight race, with both candidates well within the margin of error. Republican pollster Whit Ayres put it succinctly: “The only thing you can say for sure is that the seven swing states are all really close. They’re all effectively tied.”
Historically, Trump has performed better in these battleground states than national polls would suggest. In 2016, he won states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin by razor-thin margins, flipping the election in his favor. The 2024 election is shaping up to be just as close, if not more so.
Trump’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Despite his underdog status in national polls, Trump has several key strengths heading into the 2024 election. His base of support remains intensely loyal, particularly among white, non-college-educated voters. Additionally, the issues of inflation and immigration continue to resonate with his supporters, many of whom are dissatisfied with the state of the economy under the current administration.
On the flip side, Trump faces challenges with key demographic groups. Women voters, particularly in the suburbs, have shifted away from Trump in recent elections. Harris is likely to benefit from this trend, especially as women’s rights, including abortion access, remain hot-button issues. Younger voters, too, seem to be more inclined toward Harris, though their turnout is historically lower than older generations.
Another challenge for Trump is the surge of new voters who have been mobilized by specific issues, such as abortion rights and climate change. Pollster Frank Luntz noted that these new voters could upend traditional voting patterns: “There are fundamentals in question that no one can answer until Election Day.”
Lessons from 2016 and 2020
While Trump’s campaign is optimistic about their chances, they are well aware of the lessons from 2016 and 2020. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College due to narrow losses in key battleground states. Trump’s team is working to replicate that strategy in 2024 by focusing heavily on swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump by winning back several of those key battleground states, including Arizona and Georgia. Biden also improved his margins in suburban areas and among voters of color. These are precisely the demographics Harris will need to win if she hopes to prevent Trump from returning to the White House.
Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist, believes that pollsters have learned from their mistakes in 2016 and 2020. He noted that Republican candidates underperformed in the 2022 midterms and that Trump himself underperformed in the 2024 Republican primaries. Rosenberg argues that Democrats, including Harris, are just as likely to benefit from a “hidden vote” this time around, as Trump did in 2016.
A Race Too Close to Call
Ultimately, the 2024 presidential election remains too close to call. Both Trump and Harris are well within striking distance of victory, and the outcome will likely hinge on voter turnout in the battleground states.
Pollster Frank Luntz offered a sobering assessment: “There are fundamentals in question that no one can answer until Election Day.” The combination of new issues, hidden votes, and changing demographics makes predicting the outcome of this election more difficult than ever.
As of now, the only certainty is that this election will come down to the wire. Will Trump once again defy the polls and reclaim the White House? Or will Kamala Harris make history as the first female president of the United States? Only time will tell.