Trump vs Harris: who is leading in USA election polls?

A candidate must secure 270 out of the 538 electoral votes to win the presidency 

18th October 2024

Digital Worldwide News

With just weeks to go before Americans cast their votes on November 5, the race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump is intensifying. Early voting is already underway in key battleground states like North Carolina and Georgia, where both candidates are vying for crucial support from undecided voters.

Who is in the Lead?

As of now, Vice President Harris is leading in national polls with a 2.4-percentage-point edge over Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election tracker. This slight lead has been building ever since Harris officially replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket after his withdrawal from the race in July.

However, this race is far from settled. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast suggests that Harris is favored to win 54 out of 100 times, while Trump remains a strong contender with a 46 out of 100 chance. Polls may be leaning in Harris’ favor, but the race is close and unpredictable, with key battleground states holding the power to swing the election.

The Battle for Swing States

Swing states—often referred to as battlegrounds—are expected to play a critical role in determining the outcome of this election. States like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are closely watched by both campaigns. These states have a history of shifting their political loyalties and could decide the election.

In 2020, Georgia made headlines by flipping from Republican red to Democratic blue for the first time in nearly three decades. Arizona, too, saw a narrow Democratic victory by just 0.3 percentage points. As of today, polling suggests that Trump and Harris are locked in a tight contest in these crucial states. While national polls give an overall picture, the real battle will be won or lost in these states, as they ultimately determine the distribution of electoral votes.

Understanding the Electoral College

While the popular vote might grab attention, it is the Electoral College that decides the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. A candidate must secure 270 out of the 538 electoral votes to win the presidency. Electoral votes are distributed based on state populations, meaning that some states, like California and Texas, hold more sway than others.

In some cases, specific combinations of state results could lead to an electoral tie. If neither candidate reaches 270 votes, the election is sent to the House of Representatives, where each state’s delegation gets one vote to choose the president. The Senate would then select the vice president. Such a scenario is rare but remains a possibility given the highly competitive nature of this year’s race.

The Impact of Polling

Polls are a critical tool in gauging public opinion and predicting election outcomes. Most polls rely on a sample of voters to estimate how the larger population might vote, with results often varying based on sample size, pollster quality, and survey methodology.

However, the accuracy of polls has come into question in recent elections. The 2016 and 2020 U.S. elections both saw major polling inaccuracies, particularly underestimating Republican support. While the 2022 midterms saw better polling results, many voters remain skeptical.

One of the primary challenges pollsters face is reaching voters. Traditional phone surveys have become less effective, as fewer people answer calls. Nonresponse bias also plays a role, with many Trump supporters reportedly choosing not to participate in polls. Changes in voter turnout also affect polling accuracy. For example, the unexpectedly high voter turnout in 2020 led to incorrect predictions in several key races.

The Margin of Error

Polls come with an inherent margin of error, which indicates the potential range within which the actual election result may fall. For example, a poll with a 1,000-person sample size typically has a margin of error of about plus or minus 3 percent. This means that if Harris leads Trump by 2.4 points, the actual gap could be larger or smaller, or even reversed.

Given this margin of error, polls showing narrow differences between Harris and Trump in key swing states suggest that the race is too close to call. Many of the polls conducted for the 2024 presidential election indicate a difference in support within this margin of error, adding to the uncertainty of the final outcome.

Looking Ahead

With early voting already underway and Election Day rapidly approaching, both Trump and Harris are ramping up their efforts to sway undecided voters and secure key electoral votes. Both campaigns are focusing on swing states, understanding that these regions will ultimately decide the election.

As the countdown to November 5 continues, the race remains on a knife edge, with Harris holding a slim national lead but Trump remaining competitive in the swing states that matter most. The battle for the White House is far from over, and both candidates will need to make every day count as they seek to convince voters to back them at the polls.