Kamala Harris is attempting to become the first female president of the United States, while Donald Trump aims for an unprecedented return to the White House after his 2020 loss.
23rd October 2024
Digital Worldwide News
Voters in the US will head to the polls on November 5 to choose their next president. This year's election, initially a 2020 rematch, took a surprising turn in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and threw his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
Now, the big question hangs in the air: Will the US see its first female president, or will Donald Trump secure a second term?
As election day approaches, let’s break down what the polls reveal about this closely watched race.
Kamala Harris has consistently held a narrow lead over Trump in the national polls since joining the race in late July. Her campaign got off to a strong start, with a nearly four-point lead by the end of August.
Throughout September, her advantage held firm, even after the much-anticipated debate between the two candidates on September 10. The debate attracted a massive audience of nearly 70 million viewers.
However, as October arrived, the gap began to narrow, with Trump closing in. The latest polling averages, which reflect both trends and individual results, show a clear tightening of the race.
But how reliable are national polls for predicting the election outcome?
The United States does not rely solely on a popular vote to decide its leader. Instead, the country uses an electoral college system, with each state receiving a certain number of votes based on its population. A total of 538 electoral votes are at stake, and a candidate must secure at least 270 to win.
While national polls give insight into general popularity, they aren't the definitive answer. A candidate can win the popular vote but still lose the electoral college. This makes a handful of swing states the critical battlegrounds.
Right now, seven states are drawing the most attention as potential deciders: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The latest polling averages show a razor-thin margin in each, with neither candidate establishing a solid lead.
Trends suggest subtle differences across these battlegrounds:
Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina have seen fluctuating leads, with Trump holding a slight advantage in recent weeks.
In Nevada, Harris has consistently maintained a small edge.
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have leaned towards Harris for most of the campaign, but polls show Trump making inroads, especially in Pennsylvania.
Each of these states played pivotal roles in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Their results could again be the deciding factor.
For Kamala Harris, reclaiming the three traditionally Democratic states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—remains crucial. These states turned red during Trump’s 2016 victory but returned to blue in 2020 under Biden.
As of now, Pennsylvania holds particular significance due to its high number of electoral votes. On the day Biden dropped out of the race, polls showed him trailing Trump by almost five points in Pennsylvania alone. Harris’s ability to regain lost ground here could be pivotal.
Donald Trump is no stranger to tight races, with his 2016 and 2020 campaigns defying poll predictions. He’s now making gains in some key areas, showing surprising strength in places like Georgia and North Carolina.
Pennsylvania, once a stronghold for the Democrats, has turned into a nail-biter with Trump currently holding a slight lead.
The former president's campaign is pushing hard to replicate his 2016 strategy by focusing on states that he successfully flipped during his first campaign.
The polling averages used here are derived from 538, a reputable analysis site linked to ABC News. 538 gathers and scrutinizes data from various polls across the country.
Each poll must meet strict standards, including clarity on sample size, polling dates, and methodology (phone, online, etc.). This ensures that only credible and transparent sources are considered.
The aggregation of these individual polls helps provide a clearer overall picture, despite minor variances.
With the race so close, poll reliability becomes a hot topic. In both 2016 and 2020, polls notably underestimated support for Trump. Pollsters are refining their techniques, factoring in voter demographics and behaviors, but predicting turnout remains a significant challenge.
Polls can provide a snapshot of public opinion, but they can't capture the complexities of who will show up on November 5.
The reality is: anything can happen when the margins are this tight.
With the election drawing nearer, both campaigns are ramping up their efforts in key states. Ads are flooding TV screens, rallies are energizing bases, and voter turnout strategies are in full swing.
Kamala Harris continues to present herself as a continuation of Biden’s legacy while emphasizing her own vision for the future.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, is leaning into his track record and attacking Harris’s platform, hoping to sway undecided voters.
As November 5 approaches, every move matters, every debate counts, and every poll will be scrutinized.
Stay tuned as we keep tracking the latest developments in this pivotal race.